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                        ——中央農辦副主任、農業農村部副部長韓俊回應美對我新一輪加征關稅焦點問題
                        
                        隨著美方日前對約2000億美元中國輸美商品加征25%關稅,中國對自美進口的部分農產品再次采取反制措施。自中美貿易戰以來,農產品進出口一直受各方高度關切。加征關稅對中美兩國農業帶來哪些影響?進口大豆缺口如何彌補?國內食品價格是否會因此上漲?日前,中央農村工作領導小組辦公室副主任、農業農村部副部長韓俊就相關問題接受了記者采訪。
                        
                        美國農民不可承受失去中國市場
                        
                        據韓俊介紹,美方在其301條款下對中方發起兩輪加征關稅措施。作為反制措施,中方對美方出口農產品也加征了關稅。
                        
                        第一輪措施涵蓋的農產品約占2017年美國向中國農產品出口額的87%,于2018年7月6日實施加征25%關稅;第二輪措施涵蓋的農產品約占12%,于2018年9月24日實施加征10%關稅。隨著美方提高加征稅率,中方也于2019年6月1日起把第二輪措施加征稅率最高提高到25%。
                        
                        “可以說,美國出口到中國的幾乎所有農產品,都因為美方率先發起的貿易戰而被加征了反制關稅。”韓俊表示。
                        
                        他說,中國是美國最重要的農產品出口國之一。2017年美國對中國農產品出口額為240億美元。受中美貿易摩擦影響,去年美國大豆對中國出口減少1621萬噸,遭遇“腰斬”;去年下半年至今年第一季度,美國對中國農產品出口額為62.5億美元,同比下降近七成,其中大豆同比減少87%,谷物減少95.5%,棉花減少43.6%。
                        
                        中方的反制措施造成美國農產品庫存高企、市場價格大幅下跌、農場收入嚴重縮水。雖然美國先后出臺了兩輪農業援助計劃,但失去中國市場是美國農民不可承受的,因為這個市場一旦失去就會被其他國家填補。
                        
                        他強調,如果美國不取消全部加征關稅,中美農產品雙邊貿易,包括大豆貿易不可能恢復正常。一旦失去中國這個市場,想重新獲得份額很難,這一點美國農業界很清楚。
                        
                        減少進口美豆不會影響國內供應
                        
                        大豆是中國食用油的主要原料,也是養殖業的重要飼料來源。正常年份中國每年從美國進口3000多萬噸大豆,約占進口大豆總量的三分之一。
                        
                        對此,韓俊表示,在自美大豆進口大幅減少的情況下,中國有能力、有信心通過豐富的政策工具和多元的供應來源,保障國內供需平衡:
                        
                        ——實施國產大豆振興計劃。引導多途徑擴大種植面積,推廣高油高蛋白大豆新品種,到2020年全國大豆種植面積有望擴大到1.4億畝,產量增加到接近1900萬噸。
                        
                        ——拓展多元化進口渠道。國際大豆貿易競爭性非常強,中國可以擴大從南美、俄羅斯等國家的進口。
                        
                        ——引導多元化飼料消費需求。農業農村部已部署加大低蛋白日糧應用技術研發與示范推廣支持力度。據測算,在全國畜禽養殖中推廣應用低蛋白日糧,將豆粕在飼料中比重由前期的21%降至18%,可減少豆粕用量約1100萬噸,折合大豆約1400萬噸。
                        
                        ——保障國內食用植物油穩定供應。大力發展油菜、花生、油茶等替代油料生產,鼓勵特色健康小品種食用油消費,形成更加多元化的食用油消費格局。
                        
                        韓俊說,去年以來中國大豆需求量已減少。去年進口總量為8803萬噸,同比下降7.9%,進口減少751萬噸。今年1至4月份,大豆進口繼續減少,進口總量為2438.9萬噸,同比下降7.9%。在總需求下降的情況下,我國完全可以保障國內大豆供需平衡,確保市場運行總體平穩。
                        
                        他還表示,因為資源稟賦原因,我國大豆主要依靠國外市場的局面不會改變。中國愿意擴大開放,愿意和所有國家做生意。
                        
                        全方位開拓農產品出口國際市場
                        
                        針對中國農產品出口美國的影響和應對問題,韓俊說,美方在其301條款下對中方發起了兩輪加征關稅措施,其中針對中國農產品出口的措施集中在第二輪,主要包括水產品、水果、蔬菜等特色優勢產品。
                        
                        受加征關稅影響,去年第四季度到今年第一季度,中國對美國的農產品出口出現了一定程度下降,出口額為36.3億美元,同比減少8.8%。
                        
                        分產品看,中國對美出口水產品為14.7億美元,同比減少6.6%;對美出口水果3.5億美元,減少19.8%;出口蔬菜4.7億美元,減少16.4%。
                        
                        隨著美方第二輪加征關稅措施自5月10日起由10%提高到25%,預計水產品、水果、蔬菜對美出口可能出現進一步下降。
                        
                        不過,東方不亮西方亮。韓俊說,中國一方面繼續加大力度開發東盟、日本、歐盟等傳統市場的潛力,另一方面強化與“一帶一路”國家的貿易投資合作,積極開拓新興替代市場。
                        
                        同時,鼓勵企業大力拓展國內市場,滿足人們對優質水產品和果蔬的需要,力爭把美國加征關稅影響降到最低。
                        
                        部分食品價格上漲可控
                        
                        最近,部分農產品價格出現較大幅度上漲,比較突出的是水果、豬肉和雞蛋。
                        
                        韓俊分析說,這主要是受前期氣候、疫病等不利因素影響,具有一定的季節性和周期性,與中美經貿摩擦沒有直接關系。
                        
                        他表示,水果價格漲幅大主要是因為蘋果、梨主產區去年春季遭受倒春寒天氣,減產幅度較大,加上今年春季南方荔枝等部分熱帶水果減產,市場青黃不接導致水果價格持續走高。后期隨著西瓜、甜瓜、桃等夏季時令水果大量上市,預計水果價格將總體回落。
                        
                        豬肉價格上漲是去年8月以來非洲豬瘟疫情與周期性因素疊加,導致育肥豬和能繁母豬存欄持續下滑,導致市場供給階段性偏緊。中央已出臺扶持政策,引導鼓勵補欄增養。近期養殖戶補欄積極性提高。同時,中國可以增加豬肉進口,很多國家都有向中國增加豬肉出口的意愿。
                        
                        韓俊認為,總體來看我國農產品供給有保障,食品價格上漲可控。糧棉油糖等大宗農產品生產形勢好、庫存足、價格穩,蔬菜、水產品等鮮活農產品供給充裕。今年全國夏糧生產形勢較好,奪取全年糧食和農業豐收有較好基礎。
                        
                        扎實做好農民工穩就業工作
                        
                        中美貿易戰對我國部分制造業企業、特別是出口型企業在短期內有一定影響,這是否波及農民工就業?對這一問題,韓俊強調,我國有2.88億農民工,打工收入是農民的重要收入來源。中央提出“六穩”,頭一穩就是“穩就業”。
                        
                        他說,短期看,部分出口企業可能會出現減產,一些企業向海外轉移產能和訂單可能會加快,這對農民工就業會有一定影響。按照黨中央、國務院的決策部署,防止出現大規模失業和群體性失業,是今年就業創業工作的一條紅線,必須堅決守住守好。
                        
                        對此韓俊指出,一方面要大規模開展農民工職業技能培訓,提高他們轉崗轉業能力。勞務輸入省份特別是東部沿海省份要主動擔當,幫助農民工盡量留在就業地,防止出現大規模返鄉潮;另一方面,要多渠道幫助農民工就地就近就業創業,包括發展特色種養、開展農產品精深加工銷售、發展鄉村旅游等。
                        
                        他還表示,近年來農民工返鄉就業創業已成常態化趨勢。在農業農村穩定向好發展的大背景下,農村對很多農民工、大學生等群體越來越有吸引力。目前全國有780萬人返鄉下鄉開展創業創新,要為他們就業創業提供充分的服務,提高其創業成功率,帶動更多農村勞動力就地就近就業。
                        
                        “越是在經濟形勢復雜的時候,‘三農’工作的重要性就越凸顯。我們有信心把‘三農’這個戰略后院守好,把‘壓艙石’的作用發揮出來。”韓俊表示,今年中央一號文件對今明兩年“三農”工作作出部署,一系列含金量高的政策正在落實,農業農村部將主動應對外部變化和挑戰,鞏固糧食和農業農村發展的好形勢,為穩定經濟社會大局提供有力支撐。
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